Can International Climate Change Efforts Succeed Without the Us?
Contents
- Summary
- Challenge
- The global and national context for accelerating U.S. climate action
- Policy recommendations
- Conclusion
Summary
The United States is rejoining international efforts against climate alter in a crucial year. All members of the Paris Agreement are obliged to submit updated pledges for emissions reductions prior to a global climate meeting in November. President Joe Biden wants to re-establish U.S. leadership on climate. Doing so volition require the United States to make an ambitious but achievable pledge and to assist other nations in doing the aforementioned. The political landscape for enacting climate legislation in the U.s. is however tricky, simply U.S. subnational actors have connected emissions reduction efforts during the Trump administration and volition be a key part of efforts going forward. These subnational actors tin share their skills and appetite with their counterparts away. The Us also has an opportunity to lead through its office in the global financial sector. It tin encourage greener investing past requiring disclosure of climate risks and support global efforts to finance emissions reduction and climate adaptation in developing countries.
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Claiming
2021 has the potential to be a twelvemonth of rapid advancement on climate modify. The European Union, China, Japan, and South Korea accept all announced new and aggressive near- and long-term climate targets, and every member of the Paris Agreement is obliged to update their pledges prior to the November Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting. Non-government actors and sub-national governments around the world are also committing to ambitious long-term goals. Most of these goals focus on reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. As the international customs gears up for the COP event, political attending to climate is the highest it has been since the runup to the Paris COP in 2015. Expectations are high for commitments that accolade the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to "well below" 2°C in a higher place pre-industrial levels.
Four years of U.South. absence from the global climate community — including global climate negotiations and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — have left a big gap in international leadership and credibility.
In this context, the reaction in the global climate customs to Joe Biden's ballot as U.S. president has been overwhelmingly positive. The globe sees the importance of U.South. action to limit overall global temperature ascent, and President Biden's campaign, appointments — including former secretarial assistant of state John Kerry equally special presidential envoy for climate — and early actions in office betoken his interest in a new approach to climate change. However, the Biden administration immediately faces a difficult challenge. 4 years of U.Due south. absence from the global climate community — including global climate negotiations and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — have left a big gap in international leadership and credibility. How does the new assistants come across the moment? How does the United states regain its brownie on the globe stage?
Since greenhouse gas emissions mix throughout the global atmosphere and oceans, emissions in ane part of the globe impact the climate everywhere. The Paris Understanding calls for all countries to reduce emissions in line with their own development goals and political realities. But science suggests that a goal of net-cipher emissions from the largest emitting countries by mid-century is necessary. In this context, credible U.S. action is critical. As the globe's largest economy, second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, and superpower re-engaging on climate diplomacy, U.S. actions tin either dampen or accelerate global action. If the U.s. fails to brand commitments that the rest of the globe views as serious, information technology volition be harder to pressure other countries to have more serious action. Apparent U.Southward. action could form the basis for 18-carat leadership, equally the United States displayed preceding the Paris COP through its bilateral commitments with People's republic of china.
The skillful news is that Biden is appointing climate experts to positions throughout the executive branch and promises a "whole of government" approach to climatic change. Nevertheless, despite unified political control of the White Business firm and (narrowly) Congress, the nation remains polarized on whether and how to respond to the climate crisis. Many deportment that could motion the United states toward a depression-carbon economy exercise non crave legislation and could exist implemented with little or no bipartisan support, merely given that such deportment were reversed when the Trump administration replaced the Obama administration, these may not be enough to demonstrate U.Due south. brownie. U.Southward. leadership in innovation, financial markets, and ceremonious social club provide additional opportunities for international date and action.
Changes in how we understand the depression-carbon transition are an additional source of expert news. The chat on climate activity is shifting from one focused solely on costs to one centered around opportunities: for low-cost renewable electricity generation, for growth in jobs and communities, for greater justice for communities that have long been unduly affected past pollution, for development in countries that currently lack modern energy services. The cost of renewable electricity has fallen rapidly and technological advancements in other sectors, like batteries, are reducing the cost of decarbonization. A zero-carbon world is coming into view.
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The global and national context for accelerating U.S. climate action
The United States sat on the sidelines for four years of global climate activity, and the world inverse while we were abroad. The science nigh climatic change became clearer and our allies and partners abroad are stepping upward their national climate strategies in response. At present that the Us is back in the game, they wait ambitious action, including a new U.S. climate target or nationally determined contribution (NDC). In this context, later whipsawing political positions on climate change, the Usa must accelerate a credible strategy for robust and continued climate activity at home that is seen as reliable and not subject to reversals over time.
In some means, such activity at home faces headwinds, just in other ways there are reasons for optimism. With Congress finely counterbalanced, the pathway for successful legislation on climate has narrowed. Moreover, the White House and Congress are focused on the firsthand crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting deep economical recession. At the aforementioned fourth dimension, a strong set of about-term options exist to embed policies to support climate action, low-emission transportation, and clean free energy evolution into current discussions around economic recovery and investment. In this way, spending designed to pull the nation out of the recession would encourage investments to reduce emissions and increase resilience to climatic change.
Another element that has inverse in the past four years — and that supports enhanced domestic climate policies and international credibility — is the increased breadth and depth of sub-national action on climate in the United States. In fact, subnational actors with significant climate commitments (including states, cities, and businesses) represent roughly 70% of U.S. Gross domestic product — equivalent to the earth's 2d largest economy, roughly the size of China's. Using policy authorities at their disposal, many of which are pregnant, these actors have advanced climate activeness across multiple sectors and greenhouse gases, including electricity, clean transportation, land use, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and more than. Even outside of federal regulation and legislation, such policies already are driving significant reductions in U.Southward. emissions and could practise more than if expanded in line with recent trends. As another example, over 600 local governments in the United States take developed climate activeness plans. While the majority of these municipalities are lagging in their efforts to meet their targets, some large cities (Los Angeles, New York Urban center, and Durham, Due north Carolina, for case) have achieved significant reductions and take highly qualified organizations to demonstrate how such reductions can be achieved.
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Policy recommendations
Against this properties, the United States can and should re-engage fully with the international community to support global action. To do and so, it must human action in v linked means.
As the federal government dismantled its climate efforts, the subnational community essentially increased its climate commitments. Every bit a result, the United states of america has highly motivated and experienced actors exterior the federal government.
Embed climate action into U.S. society. The core project for the Us this year, and for years to come, is to develop and implement a national climate strategy that brings to bear all possible areas of policy action. In many means the U.South. is playing grab-up, simply ane important reward developed during the Trump years. Every bit the federal government dismantled its climate efforts, the subnational customs substantially increased its climate commitments. Equally a consequence, the U.s. has highly motivated and experienced actors exterior the federal regime. Federal action to catalyze and encourage these local efforts will be a key function of a bottom-up climate strategy, enabling more robust policy through oscillating political cycles at the national level.
Subnational actions are key, but some actions must take place at the federal level. New legislation is a offset potential correspondent. Given the electric current makeup of Congress, actions rooted in tax credits, investment, and stimulus are likely to take some traction in the about term. Other policies will take to be evaluated in calorie-free of their potential support. A second possible contributor is authoritative deportment that can exist implemented by the executive co-operative, including regulatory actions under existing laws. Such administrative actions are less durable than legislative outcomes, merely remain on the table as options.
Accelerate subnational affairs. While non all countries are structured like the Us, lesser-up leadership and implementation are cardinal to success in some form in all countries. The United states of america can use its non-federal actors in its diplomatic efforts to support and bolster climate activeness around the world. For this, U.S. cities, states, and businesses can interact with their counterparts in other countries to discuss opportunities and strategies, supported by the U.S. diplomatic try. Such efforts could take place through a U.Southward. Country Section Function of Subnational Diplomacy, equally recommended by Anthony F. Pipa and Max Bouchet in their brief for this series.
Announce an ambitious nevertheless credible U.S. nationally adamant contribution. As a central pillar of the Paris Understanding, countries around the earth regularly offer their NDCs and report on progress. Each land's NDC is viewed as an indicator of the state's overall climate appetite. The U.S. target will likely accept an outsized impact on overall global action this year. President Biden has committed to offer the next U.Southward. NDC at a leaders' meeting that he will host on Earth Mean solar day, April 22. In parallel with developing the national climate strategy, Washington volition be undertaking an assessment of the possible emissions reductions associated with such a strategy. International perception of the U.Southward. domestic commitment is of import; the delivery must be seen as sufficiently ambitious to unlock the other diplomatic opportunities available to the United states of america. The goal of achieving emissions reductions of approximately 50% beneath 2005 levels by 2030 is receiving a bang-up deal of attention, but is highly aggressive for the United states. Achieving such a target would exist a claiming, only the whole-of-guild approach described above could better the probability of reaching such a goal.
Revisit U.S. domestic financial regulations and international climate finance. Mobilizing new sources of finance to support a rapid economic and technological transition is fundamental to addressing climatic change. Here too, the United states provides an important link between domestic and international actions. Domestically, the U.S. financial system leads the globe, merely U.S. financial regulations do a poor job of requiring disclosure of climate-related risk, including the physical risks associated with climatic change. Contempo movement toward addressing these issues tin be accelerated. For example, the Federal Reserve recently joined the Network for Greening the Financial System and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made clear in her confirmation hearing that she believes climatic change is a hazard to the financial system. Through its outsized influence on the global financial system, the The states can encourage greener investment. Greater disclosure of climate risks would allow investors to direct funds to depression-carbon and resilient assets, potentially moving the needle in areas where policy lags behind.
The United States must also exercise leadership in marshalling the financing that developing countries, especially the larger emitters, will need to raise their climate ambition, and to assist poor and vulnerable countries adapt to the already evident impacts of climate change. This includes ensuring that developed countries live up to their commitment to mobilize $100 billion per year in climate finance, a key tenet of the climate accords. For the United States, coming together its commitment to the Green Climate Fund, established nether the U.N. climate framework a decade ago, will be an firsthand litmus exam. The United States must also play a leadership role in unleashing the potential of the Imf and the multilateral development banks in supporting more ambitious climate activity. These institutions can play a office beyond their own financing by catalyzing private investment through reducing and sharing gamble. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to "build dorsum better" by tackling the interrelated challenges of task growth, climate change, pollution, and biodiversity.
Back up international efforts and national strategies. The United States can utilise its substantial foreign policy apparatus to engage with key countries, partners, and allies around the world. In doing this, the United States can first communicate how it volition attain its own ambitious goals, then seek to understand how other countries conceptualize delivering on their own goals and work with them bilaterally or multilaterally to support their national climate strategies. Finally, it tin piece of work with partners around the world to ensure that in that location is broad support for a strong outcome at the climate briefing later this year.
Fundamentally, the climate challenge requires pushing the technological borderland in a dozen key sectors, from electricity to cars to building materials. In every sector the challenge is different, and in every sector there are dissimilar arrays of international partners, such every bit national and subnational governments and pioneering firms. The United States should marry with the U.K. government as it advances fundamental "campaigns" that reflect this sector-focused approach to deep decarbonization. The endeavor should identify a few sectors, such as cars and electricity, where the United States is at the frontier and can particularly shape the global endeavour.
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Conclusion
When the Paris Agreement was concluded in 2015, the earth took a pregnant stride toward addressing climate alter. Paris established an architecture to encourage a global "race to the elevation" of climate ambition and catalyzed the commencement set of national climate targets as a down payment on a global emissions trajectory toward net naught. The intervening years have seen some negative forces, such equally the U.S. opposition internationally and rollbacks domestically, and more recently the pandemic and economic recession. All the same there have also been positive surprises — increased national ambition in many other countries, continued advancements in the quality and cost of clean technologies, and the groundswell of subnational activeness in the U.s. and elsewhere. U.S. global leadership on climate is again a possibility and the opportunity for a new, major step on climate change is palpable. This moment has arrived only in time to have a run a risk to put the world on a safer climate trajectory. U.S. action today, with a joint domestic and international strategy, is disquisitional for our shared global success.
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Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/us-action-is-the-lynchpin-for-successful-international-climate-policy-in-2021/
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